RESUMO
We evaluated the performance of PRISM IV for pediatric cancer patients, and adapted and calibrated the algorithm to calculate mortality probabilities for these patients. An ambidirectional cohort was used, and data were collected from March 2017 prospectively to April 2019, and retrospectively to November 2014. The derivation set for model building contained 500 patients, and a validation set of 503 patients. Risk variables for hospital death were tested in logistic regression models encompassing PRISM IV components. There were 128 deaths (12.7%), being 65 deaths in the validation set. In the validation set, the PRISM IV algorithm had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with P=0.13 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and predicted 33 of the 65 deaths for a standardized mortality rate of 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.9; P<0.001 by Mid-P test). Our modified algorithm had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93, with P=0.3 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and an standardized mortality rate of 1.02 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.19). The modified algorithm predicted 63.7 of 65 deaths. The PRISM IV algorithm was a poor predictor of mortality in children with cancer. The modified algorithm improved the predictive performance.
